Vistra lifts 2026 outlook after Q3 EBITDA tops $2.3 billion
Vistra reported a 50% jump in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, raised its 2026 range, opened 2027 guidance and authorized another $1.5 billion of buybacks.
Vistra (NYSE: VST) reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $1.14 billion and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, up from $1.581 billion a year earlier. The power producer said the quarter benefited mainly from higher realized energy and capacity prices, three months of contribution from plants acquired from Lotus, and the return of Martin Lake Unit 1.
Vistra narrowed and raised the midpoint of its 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.1 billion–$7.5 billion and set Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance at $4.3 billion–$4.7 billion. It also initiated 2027 ranges of $7.7 billion–$8.5 billion for EBITDA and $4.3 billion–$5.1 billion for free cash flow before growth.
The quarter also marked the start of commercial operations at the 405-megawatt Pulaski Solar Facility in Illinois and the 100-megawatt Deer Creek Solar & Energy Storage Facility in California. Vistra said it signed a 20-year, 207-megawatt power-purchase agreement with New Era Energy and Digital at its Odessa combined-cycle gas plant in Texas.
The company closed its Cogentrix acquisition in October, adding approximately 5,500 megawatts of natural-gas generation capacity. As of September 30, Vistra reported $8.923 billion of available liquidity; it said pro forma liquidity was approximately $5.4 billion after the acquisition-related cash payment, debt repayment and other financing actions disclosed in October and November.
Q3 adjusted EBITDA
$2.378B
↑ +$797M YoY ongoing operations
2026 EBITDA outlook
$7.1–$7.5B
↑ midpoint raised
2027 EBITDA outlook
$7.7–$8.5B
↑ new range
New buyback authorization
$1.5B
↑ through 2028
Sources
Quarterly revenue, Vistra
Margins by quarter
Twelve quarters of figures
| Quarter | Q3 '23 | Q4 '23 | Q1 '24 | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.8B | $6.3B | $4.0B | $3.9B | $4.3B | $5.0B | $4.6B | $5.6B | $4.0B |
| Revenue growth | −20.6% | −20.4% | −31.0% | 20.6% | 53.9% | 31.2% | 28.8% | 10.5% | −20.9% | 13.6% | 43.4% | −5.5% |
| Operating margin | 20.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 21.0% | 41.2% | 14.8% | −3.1% | 12.1% | 20.9% | 10.3% | 26.6% | 13.8% |
| Net income | $502M | −$184M | −$35.0M | $365M | $1.9B | $441M | −$268M | $327M | $652M | $233M | $1.0B | $305M |
| Diluted EPS | $1.25 | −$0.55 | −$0.24 | $0.90 | $5.25 | $1.14 | −$0.93 | $0.81 | $1.75 | $0.54 | $2.87 | $0.76 |
| Cash from operations | $1.6B | $881M | $312M | $1.2B | $1.7B | $1.4B | $599M | $572M | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.0B |
| Capital expenditure | $336M | $414M | $465M | $498M | $685M | $430M | $768M | $690M | $458M | $836M | $883M | $689M |
| Free cash flow | $1.2B | $467M | −$153M | $698M | $1.0B | $923M | −$169M | −$118M | $1.0B | $596M | $316M | $334M |
| Dividends and buybacks | $389M | $464M | $368M | $404M | $479M | $320M | $420M | $321M | $264M | $329M | $449M | $414M |
This story describes figures the company has published. It is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Check the original filings before relying on any figure. Stoqly is not affiliated with the SEC or Vistra.
